This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forec…
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts …
Building on concepts from Science & Technology Studies, Simon David Hirsbrunner investigates practices and infrastructures of computer modeling and science communication in climate impact research. The book characterizes how scientists calculate future climate risks in computer models and scenarios, but also how they circulate their insights and make them accessible and comprehensible to others…